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社科院:2018年楼市将平稳调整 房企将继续强者恒强

房天下综合整理   2017-12-08 10:18

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">社科院报告称2018年楼市将平稳调整 住房租赁市场有望享政策红利

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">2017年,房地产市场的特点是遭遇密集调控、因城施策。未来的一年,楼市会呈现出怎样的趋势和走向?

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">12月5日,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院、中国社会科学院城市与竞争力研究中心课题组发布的《中国住房发展报告(2017~2018)》(以下简称《发展报告》)给出了预判。报告预测称,在没有重大政策冲击的情况下,2018年中国楼市将迎来平稳调整。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">《发展报告》指出,2017年楼市总体稳中有升,一二线城市分化降温,三四线城市分化升温,其中,尖塔型房价体系有所收敛,随着本轮楼市回升小周期接近尾声,未来一年将迎来新一轮调整期和降温期。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">中国社会科学院城市与竞争力研究中心主任倪鹏飞指出,未来市场需要警惕三个不确定性:个是反弹;第二个是下跌;最后就是转移。具体来讲是指出现市场反弹,泡沫扩大;预期逆转,泡沫破裂;住房投资投机再度转移。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">住房市场总体风险有所降低

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">2016年下半年以来,“房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的”的楼市调控目标取得了明显效果,中国房地产市场内在运行规律正发生转折性、根本性的变化。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">中原地产近日发布的数据显示,2017年以来,相关房地产调控政策措施的出台已经接近180次。回顾政策调控年,《发展报告》指出,2016~2017年,中国住房市场总体稳中有升,一二线城市分化降温,三四线城市分化升温。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">2016年10月~2017年9月,房价总体稳中有升,一二线城市增幅分化下调,三四线城市增幅分化上升,住房总体销量同比增幅逐步下降,一二线城市下降明显,三四线城市增幅较快。具体数据来看,一线城市二手房价格同比涨幅由4月的33.1%降到10月的26.4%,二线城市由38.6%微降到36.8%,三线城市楼市分化升温,房价同比涨幅均由4月的12%上升到10月的17.6%,其中三线城市中有55个城市的房价涨幅上升,四线城市中有143个城市的二手房价格上涨。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">《发展报告》认为,经过一轮因城施策的密集调控,中国尖塔形房价体系在2017年有所收敛,不同区域、层级、城市群分化各异。具体表现为:东部城市房价领涨,分化程度下降;不同层级城市房价差异显著,二线城市领涨;中国房价体系的城市群特征趋于显著,城市群与非城市群房价存在显著差距,一线、二线城市群房价与三线城市群房价差距逐步增大。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">报告也给市场提了个醒,虽然不断收紧的楼市调控及严格的限制性措施有效遏制了热点城市房价过快上涨,使当前住房市场发展的总体风险有所降低,但部分城市的住房市场仍面临着楼市报复性反弹导致泡沫继续扩大,或者预期发生逆转致泡沫破裂的风险。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">看好住房租赁市场前景

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">《发展报告》预测,在没有重大政策冲击的情况下,2018年中国楼市将迎来平稳调整,但也存在若干不确定性风险。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">总体上,本轮楼市回升小周期接近尾声,未来一年将迎来新一轮调整和降温期。在具体指标上,住房价格增幅或将继续保持平稳下降,商品住宅销售额增幅较2017年将明显回落,总体库存将会进一步下降,而降幅则有所收窄。2018年全年投资增速可能会稍低于2017年的水平。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">在中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院城市与房地产研究中心主任况伟大看来,房地产市场正表现出三个“新”的特征,即新时代、新阶段和新模式。未来中国的住房市场将呈现出“租售并举”、“租购同权”的模式,过去租赁市场不发达,发展租赁市场需要政府进一步增加对公共租赁资源的供应,同时加强对企业和个人租赁行为的规范。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">在租售并举的政策背景下,《发展报告》认为,住房租赁市场将是一个有待开发的万亿级市场,在租购并举和租售同权的政策刺激下,加上销售市场调整,2018年住房租赁市场将有显著的提升,其中一、二线城市的份额占比和总体规模提升将更加显著。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">因此,在租赁土地供应方面,报告预计将有更多的租赁用地进入市场。如何有效运营自持地块和租赁地块,增加盈利能力将成为未来房企重点探索的方向。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">中国社科院学部委员、国家金融与发展实验室理事长李扬认为,房地产市场的一大缺陷在于对房价关注较多,而到底什么样的房地产市场是理性的,这才是需要市场所关注却关注不足的。此外,未来长效机制的建立还需要关注土地制度的变化。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">《发展报告》对明年调控市场提出的建议,包括加快改革土地制度和机制改革;加快财税体制改革,2018年将房产税纳入立法议程,明确房产税时间表等。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">认为房企将继续强者恒强

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">2017年房地产行业集中度上升趋势明显,龙头企业规模与业绩大幅提升,中小房企逐渐被挤出市场。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">《发展报告》提出,在人口结构改变、购房人群减少、存量市场压力增加以及“房住不炒”的政策持续调控等背景下,房企已经没有了过去高速发展的土壤,市场整体下行和集中度持续攀升已经成为确定的趋势,房企正面临转型阵痛期和新一轮洗牌。预计2018年房地产企业强者恒强的态势会持续,大型房企在产品、布局、管理机制等方面具有较强优势,部分中型房企增长迅猛。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">《发展报告》指出,在集中度不断提升的背景下,无论是开发贷还是境外债券市场和银行融资、境内债券市场与信托贷款等融资渠道,都将有利于财务健康的大型开发企业。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">中信建投首席房地产分析师陈慎曾在链家2018房地产市场思享会上向《每日经济新闻》记者表示,房企从2018年开始集中进入还债期,2019年进入还债高峰期。因此对于房企来说,2018年既有风险,也蕴藏机会,跨过这个门槛之后可能会登上一个新台阶。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">事实上,在租售并举的政策调控影响下,未来住宅销售市场规模将遭遇“天花板”,单一的“卖房”模式难以为继,房企需提升多元化业务的竞争力。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: "microsoft yahei"; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px !important; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px !important; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 32px !important; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 29px; PADDING-RIGHT: 32px !important; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">对于未来房企的转型路径,报告提出包括园区、商业、文旅、养老、医疗、物流、金融、城市配套的七大“地产+”的转型方向,此外,社区物业、特色小镇等也都将成为房企探索的方向。

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